Season-Long NFL Betting Strategies for 2023

The key to making money in the NFL is bankroll management to go with a solid plan

September 1, 2023 366 4 minutes readNFL Picks & Parlays

Season-Long NFL Betting Strategies for 2023 — Photo taken from: sport.bovada.lv

We’re Looking For Poor Road Teams
Bet The Dogs After A Blowout
Bet Winless Teams Early

We are a week away from the NFL kicking off its 102nd season when the Detroit Lions meet the Kansas City Chiefs next Thursday. It also starts bettors off with high hopes for their bankroll, which normally turns to dust in a few weeks. This season is going to be different as we’ll carefully tip-toe through the NFL football schedule with three proven methods. Before we attack week one, remember that without bankroll management, success is unlikely. Let’s dive into our 2023 NFL betting strategies.

We’re Looking For Poor Road Teams

You heard that right. We want bad teams from a year ago who are on the road. There’s more to it, but the results of this system have been incredible. Since 2014, this method has produced 154-102 (.602) +4449 units.

Since 2006, the system is 307-187 (.622) +11,049 units with only two losing seasons (2007 -48 units and 2013 -721 units). First, we need to identify teams with six wins or less in the previous season. That narrows this year’s list to the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, and the Arizona Cardinals.

Our wagers will come when these teams are on the road and an underdog of less than six points. The reasoning is that we want a match-up where the oddsmakers feel like both teams have a chance to win. We’re not looking to bet 14-point road dogs all season, but ½ to six is an acceptable range. There are two other caveats; the total on the game must be 50 or less.

We’re not looking to take a dog in a game that is expected to become a shootout, and the game must be played on a Saturday, Sunday, or Monday. Short weeks can create chaos. The Rams have been terrific in this role, covering 13 of their last 17 in this role with a push (+877 units).

Check out those NFL lines this week to see what’s in play using this method. We continue our 2023 NFL betting strategy preview with another system involving underdogs.

Bet The Dogs After A Blowout

Remember our rule of thumb, forget what you just saw. That rule is the hardest to implement after a team gets blown out in their previous game, but history tells us that underdogs fresh off a significant loss have been highly profitable.

We use 20 points or more to define a blowout defeat. We’re also looking for spreads +3 or more because we want that field goal to start us off. Over the last three seasons, this method produced 1858 units of profit behind a record of 52-29 (.642). Let’s go back further to ensure this system has had long-term success. Since 2014, we would have earned 3062 units of profit with a success percentage of 59% (134-94-5).

The most successful teams in that time have been the Cincinnati Bengals 7-1 ATS (+561 units), the Arizona Cardinals 7-1 ATS (+552 units), and the New York Jets 14-8 ATS (+499 units). Perhaps sprinkle in a couple more dollars when these teams are involved.

The Dallas Cowboys 0-4-1 ATS (-400 units), Miami Dolphins 3-6-1 ATS (-328 units), and Tennessee Titans 3-6 ATS (-307 units) are the worst. If you took those teams out of the equation, the system would have produced 4097 units of profit with a record of 128-78 ATS (.621). Let’s go on to one more NFL betting strategy that you can use in 2023.

Bet Winless Teams Early

The theme of this story seems to be wrapped around bad teams and you would be correct. The idea is to find teams whom the public has pounded their opposition, giving us the best number with a team that may be more motivated to perform with the opponent is more worried about the following week’s game.

This final system looks for winless teams in weeks 3-6 to wager on the road because there is still hope and motivation while the number has been pumped up allowing the public to get the most out of an already inflated line. This method is so reliable that 2013 was the last time we didn’t see a profit and that was a minuscule loss of 28 units.

Go any further into the season and then we start to get teams who have lost their drive to win which is why we’ve set the parameters between week three and six. Since 2012, bettors have profited 2810 units with a record of 62-30 (.674). In that span, the New York Giants (9-2 ATS +665 units), Cincinnati Bengals (6-1, +463 units), and New Orleans Saints (4-0 ATS, +380 units) have produced the biggest results.

The New York Jets 1-4 ATS (-308 units), Chicago Bears 0-2 ATS (-200 units), and the Washington Commanders 0-2 ATS (-200 units) have produced the least. Take those teams out of the equation and the method is an insane 61-22 ATS (.735).

As you can see winning isn’t always who is on top of the NFL standings, sometimes it pays to see who is on the bottom instead. That does it for our 2023 NFL betting strategy guide, we wish you all the best with your wagers this season.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.