Euro Qualifying Play-off: Poland vs Estonia Odds
Play-off Semifinal in Warsaw
Poland Will Fancy Their Chances to Qualify
Robert Lewandowski and Poland missed a golden opportunity to qualify automatically for Euro 2024. They were in a winnable group in qualifiers but finished in third place and now have to qualify through the Play-off route. On Thursday, they’ll host Estonia in the Euro 2024 Qualifying Play-off Semifinal in a massive match for both sides. The winner will take on either Wales or Finland next week with a spot in Euro 2024 on the line.
We preview the Poland vs Estonia odds ahead of Thursday’s match in Warsaw.
Poland vs Estonia
Date, time:
Location: Kazimierz Górski National Stadium, Warsaw, Poland
Stream: ViX, Fubo TV
Poland vs Estonia Head-to-Head
This is the first chance for bettors to take the Poland vs Estonia odds since a 2012 friendly. That day, Estonia got their first-ever win over Poland by a 1-0 scoreline. Poland are 7-1-1 all-time vs. Estonia and have kept five clean sheets in nine games. This is the first competitive meeting between the two sides, as all of the previous matches have been friendlies.
Poland Happy to be Home
Poland’s downfall in Euro 2024 qualifying was their performance in road games. While they went an unbeaten 2-2-0 at home, they were just 1-3 on the road. Their only road win was over the Faroe Islands and they finished behind Albania and Czechia in Group E. Poland’s performance in the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League wasn’t anything special either. They went 2-1-3 and only managed to defeat Wales.
In fact, Poland and Wales were the only two teams from Nations League A to fail to qualify for Euro 2024 directly. Poland have qualified for the last four major tournaments and the Euro 2024 Final odds price them as even money favorites to qualify from Path A.
Robert Lewandowski is still the main man for Poland. He scored three goals in six matches in the group qualifiers. However, fellow striker Arkadiusz Milik is out with a muscle injury. Karol Swiderski could start alongside Lewandowski and the Hellas Verona man has 10 goals in 28 appearances.
With all of their defensive injuries, Jakub Kiwior has emerged as a key figure at Arsenal over the last couple of months. He should be a surefire starter on the backline along with Jan Bednarek. Poland’s defense has been solid over the last couple of years and they managed to shut out Germany in a 2023 friendly.
The problem for Poland is that they haven’t scored more than two goals in a match since November 2021. Lewandowski is clinical as Poland’s all-time leading scorer. But he typically doesn’t get too many opportunities.
Rare Opportunity For Estonia
Estonia did not win a single match in their Euro 2024 group qualifiers. The Baltic nation went 0-1-7, with two goals scored and 22 conceded. Including friendlies, Estonia played 12 matches in 2023 and only won one. They went 4-0 in the UEFA Nations League but were in a group with Malta and San Marino.
No player in Estonia’s squad is a regular on a team in a top-five league. Goalkeeper Karl Jakob Hein is third string at Arsenal and Roma midfielder Martin Vetkal has yet to make a first-team appearance. Former Liverpool center back Ragnar Klavan hasn’t played for the national team for two years. The 38-year-old is in the squad here.
Estonia seldom get opportunities like this. This is one of the biggest matches in their history. However, the only player who managed to score for Estonia in qualifiers, Rauno Sappinen, is injured. Taijo Teniste and Mattias Kait are also out, which makes a tall task even taller.
Poland vs Estonia Match Analysis & Odds
The Euro 2024 draw put the Path A winner in a group with the Netherlands, Austria, and France. If Poland are able to defeat Estonia and the winner of Wales vs. Finland, it will be considered the second-toughest group to advance from in the tournament. Poland are clear -600 favorites for this one but they can’t afford to take their opponents lightly.
Estonia haven’t defeated a top-50 team for quite some time, though, and the Poland vs Estonia odds list the visitors as +1700 underdogs. Even though Poland don’t have a three-goal win in any of their last 24 games, they are two-goal favorites here. Still, Estonia +2 comes in at -125 odds, while Poland -2 sits at -105.
While Poland have players like Piotr Zielinski and Przemyslaw Frankowski in the midfield, they lack a consistent playmaker. If Estonia can hang tight at the back, they might be able to stay in this match. A draw (+630) would mean extra time and both over and under 2.5, 3 goals show -115 odds for this one.
