MLB Weekend Recap: Astros, Blue Jays Make Statements
Players Win 8 of 15 Overall, However, Books Win Financially With Pirates, Giants
MLB weekend results show the sportsbooks taking it on the chin, losing 29 of the 44 games played between Friday and Sunday. That cost the books 305 units with a $100 wager as our base. Only a small loss Saturday (9-6, -52 units) cost the players a perfect weekend. Overall the higher bet percentage on the moneyline is 207-118 (.637) +1895 units to start 2023.
The Toronto Blue Jays went into New York and took two of three from the Bombers. The Jays have had more betting success against the Yankees than any other team over the last five seasons despite a losing record of 34-36 (+1051 units). Let’s dig into a few key decisions for the book and then recap a betting angle that has cashed all season long.
Sunday Get-Out Game Winner for Books
Mike Yastrzemski drilled a 2-1 change-up off Drew Smith to the gap to score Joc Pederson in the bottom of the 8th inning, giving San Francisco a 5-4 victory over the New York Mets. San Francisco improved to 8-13 at home after managing a split of the four-game series.
This was Pederson’s first game back after coming off the IL. Even though the Giants have not been a reliable wager, especially at home, the addition of the 2x all-star should change how bettors view the Giants line-up in their upcoming home series against the Cardinals. The win cost bettors an exceptional weekend with 86% of the moneyline money on the Metropolitans.
With this being the Sunday Night Baseball ‘Get-Out Game’ it was easily the heaviest bet game on the Sunday card with 65,779 wagers, compared to Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers attracted 38,366 tickets from our monitored books. Let’s continue our MLB weekend results recap by diving into the hottest story to start 2023.
What Do We Make of The Pittsburgh Pirates?
When we started the season, it was easy to look at the Pittsburgh Pirates‘ season-long win total and MLB latest betting news and think they were an automatic go-against. In Spring training Ke’Bryan Hayes said they were excited to prove the critics wrong.
That was chalked up to typical Spring talk, but so far the first-place Pirates are doing just that with a 16-7 record after completing a 4-0 sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. The public still isn’t convinced as 93% of the wagers were on the Reds -112, perhaps they will be now after the Bucs enjoyed their third shutout of the season, 2-0. The Los Angeles Dodgers are up next and it couldn’t have come at a better time for Pittsburgh who will miss the red-hot Clayton Kershaw.
It’s fair to say that Derek Shelton’s Pirates are the best story in baseball. Bettors who have tailed the Pirates are now up 1,075 units on a $100 wager, the best mark in the Majors. We will know exactly what we have with the Pirates after the upcoming series against the Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays with the Washington Nationals sandwiched in.
Bankroll Management Key to Success
After the MLB weekend results, there is a group of MLB betting odds that continues to cash tickets and won’t break your bankroll. Betting small favorites continues to prove its worth this season after a 8-5 record (+144 units since Thursday). Beating the books over six months is about bankroll management, and that means finding the better teams at a reasonable price.
We know that the favorites have dominated so far in 2023 with a 207-124 (.625) record, producing 724 units of overall profit. What we want to do is to identify the betting sweet spot so we can avoid betting large favorites. We’ve determined that -110 to -130 is the range you should be looking for.
Bettors will receive the better team but not at the expense of their bankroll should we come up on some losses. The previously mentioned range is 51-33 (.607) +921 units. To put that into perspective, favorites -131 or higher are 156-91 (.632) -197 units.
You can see where a larger line will quickly eat up your bankroll. Favorites -200 or more are 40-19 (.678) but -333 units. Digging into the past, favorites -130 or less are 1197-962 (.554) +3700 units, covering the last five seasons. Only 2021 produced a small loser (-48 units) but the public still would have been 57 games over .500 (357-300). We wish you nothing but the best as we come to the end of the first full month of the MLB season.
Follow us on Twitter
