NFL Week 18 Upset Watch: Best Underdogs to Bet
NFL Week 18 Upsets and Underdog Possibilites: Ravens a Live 'Dog
Bettors may be entertained in Week 18, but it won’t be because of Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, Matthew Stafford or even Patrick Mahomes. Those are just a few of the stars who are planning to sit out the final week of the NFL regular season to begin preparations for the playoffs.
As such, the betting market has seen a lot of movement in a short window of time. AFC contenders Baltimore and Kansas City are just two teams that have gone from multiple-point favorites to underdogs since lines opened following Week 17.
Are any of them still capable of winning? As we draw closer to kickoff, let’s look at a handful of NFL teams with the best odds of springing an upset. Here’s five NFL Week 18 upsets and underdog possibilities.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3) 
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With both the AFC North title and the conference’s No. 1 seed already locked up, Baltimore (13-3) has very little to gain in its regular-season finale. Thus, John Harbaugh will opt to play it safe by resting multiple starters, including three-time Pro Bowler and MVP front runner Lamar Jackson.
Because of that, Baltimore has gone from a 3.5-point favorites to a 3-point underdog.
The Ravens are in a weird spot where they don’t have much to play for, but they certainly wouldn’t mind ending their rival’s playoff hopes once and for all. It helps that they have a serviceable backup to Jackson in Tyler Huntley, who started the final five games of last season, including the wild-card loss to Cincinnati.
Both factors make Baltimore a live NFL underdog pick.
The Colts can play their way into the playoffs with a victory over Houston. They also have an outside chance at winning the AFC South, but they’ll need to beat the Texans and hope Jacksonville either loses or ties.
Indianapolis (9-7) has won six of its last eight games as it continues to get strong quarterback play from Gardner Minshew (3,164 passing yards, 15 TDs). Minshew’s helped turn the injury-ravaged Colts into one of the biggest surprises in the NFL.
The Colts have already beaten Houston once this season, 31-20 in Week 2, and there’s no reason they can’t do so again. Minshew — who came on in relief of Anthony Richardson during that first meeting — gives them a chance.
The betting line flipped in favor of the Texans and CJ Stroud, the heavy favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, but this seems like a virtual pick ’em. The latest NFL point spread has Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog.
Have you seen the Eagles lately? The defending NFC champions are a mess. They’ve dropped four of their last five to lose their hold on the NFC East and home field advantage in the playoffs. Although they technically can still win the division, they’ll need a win and a lot of help from Washington, a 13-point underdog to Dallas at home.
Knowing the odds, Nick Sirianni has suggested he may rest some starters to keep them healthy for the playoffs.
While the Giants have lost five straight against Philadelphia, they’ll obviously have a much better chance at ending that streak if they’re facing, say, Marcus Mariota, instead of Jalen Hurts. Plus, weather could be a factor, with some forecasters calling for snow in the tri-state area this weekend. Bettors should keep that in mind when making their NFL Week 18 upsets and underdog picks.
This San Francisco team will look drastically different from the one that takes the field two weekends from now. Kyle Shanahan plans to sit several starters, including star running back Christian McCaffrey and quarterback Brock Purdy. Instead, Sam Darnold will draw the start at quarterback.
The reasoning is simple: San Francisco (12-4) has already clinched homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, so it makes no difference whether it wins or loses. Sunday’s game is utterly meaningless.
Los Angeles is opting to play it safe, too, with Carson Wentz starting under center. Wentz is an obvious downgrade from Matthew Stafford, but he may be facing a horde of backups. That should help even the scales.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5) 
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Miami is an underdog for the second consecutive week as it hosts Buffalo in primetime with the AFC East title on the line. The Dolphins (11-5) are coming off a dismal 56-19 defeat to Baltimore in which they lost star pass rusher Bradley Chubb to a season-ending ACL injury.
Buffalo, on the other hand, is hot. It’s won four straight to improve to 10-6 and is now +800 to win the Super Bowl. At the moment, only San Francisco (+220) and Baltimore (+300) are bigger favorites.
Even so, Miami’s been tough at home since the NFL season started: 7-1 OU, 6-2 ATS.
For NFL Week 18 upsets and underdog picks, analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine
