Guardians vs Rays Preview: Tampa Bay Remains AL Co-Favorite Despite Injuries

Despite a mounting number of injuries, the Tampa Bay Rays remain among the teams to beat in Major League Baseball. With a .595 winning percentage, the Rays look like a lock for the postseason. Will they reclaim their place atop the division? Or is the wild card the more likely route?

Up next for Tampa Bay is a three-game weekend series against the Cleveland Guardians at home. For the opener, Tampa Bay is -1.5 (+120) on the run line and a -180 favorite to win outright, with Cleveland priced at +150. The projected run total is 7.5, with the Under juiced to +100. (Opening Odds)

Read on as we break down the matchup in our Guardians vs Rays preview.

Injuries Testing Tampa Bay

The Tampa Bay Rays entered Thursday’s series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals with a record of 69-47. They remain 2.0 games behind the first-place Baltimore Orioles in the American League East but hold a 2.5-game lead on the top wild card spot. Barring a surprise, they’ll be a fixture in the MLB playoffs bracket.

The MLB Injuries are beginning to pile up, though. Ace Shane McClanahan, who is 11-2 with a 3.29 ERA and 121 strikeouts, is expected to miss the remainder of the season with tightness in his left forearm. Manager Kevin Cash said it’s possible McClanahan could need Tommy John or flexor tendon surgery.

The two-time All-Star was placed on the 15-day injured list after leaving his Aug. 2 start against the New York Yankees in the fourth inning. He also missed more than two weeks in July with back tightness. His absence is a crushing blow to a rotation that’s already down starters Shane Baz, Jeffrey Springs, and Drew Rasmussen because of injuries.

Despite that, Tampa Bay remains a +350 co-favorite in the AL and is +700 to win the World Series. Only three teams have better odds: Atlanta Braves (+350), Los Angeles Dodgers (+450), and Houston Astros (+650).

Cleveland Looking Up in AL Central

The Cleveland Guardians are trending in the wrong direction. They were 3-7 over their last 10 games entering Thursday, falling to 55-60 overall. Despite a .478 winning percentage, the Guardians still sat in second place in the AL Central, 4.5 games behind the Minnesota Twins.

At the moment, the division is the most direct route to the playoffs for the Guardians. The Guardians are 9.5 games behind in the MLB wild card standings, with a handful of teams in front of them. Because of that, oddsmakers remain skeptical of their postseason chances. They are +550 to qualify, according to MLB playoff odds.

Run production remains an issue for Cleveland. It is averaging just 2.2 runs over its last 11 games and ranks 27th in runs scored. The Guardians have also hit the fewest homers in MLB (84) and are 26th in OPS. They traded a few underperforming bats at the deadline, shipping shortstop Amed Rosario to the Dodgers and first baseman Josh Bell to the Miami Marlins.

Second baseman Jose Ramirez is still Cleveland’s most potent hitter. The five-time All-Star is batting .284 with 18 homers and 65 RBI. He has also stolen 16 bases. However, Ramirez is facing a three-game suspension due to his role in last Saturday’s bench-clearing brawl with the Chicago White Sox.

Odds Outlook

Tampa Bay entered Thursday 59-57 against the run line, including 30-28 at home. Its 51.7% cover rate at home is the fourth-highest in MLB, trailing only the Texas Rangers (63.3%), Cincinnati Reds (58.3%), and Chicago Cubs (53.3%). Conversely, Cleveland is 57-58 ATS, including 29-28 on the road. That’s important to remember when analyzing the Guardians vs Rays preview odds.

Civale’s second start as a Ray will come against his former team. Traded July 31 in exchange for first base prospect Kyle Manzardo, Civale is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA. He opposes Curry, who owns a 2.95 ERA in 29 appearances (four starts). Curry matched a season-high pitching five innings in his last outing, a 5-3 loss to the White Sox on Sunday. He allowed two runs while striking out four.

Williams had the best start of his young career in Monday’s 3-1 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, throwing seven shutout innings while striking out 12. He allowed only one hit. In doing so, the 24-year-old right-hander became the first rookie in the modern era to turn in a scoreless outing with 12-plus strikeouts and no more than one hit allowed and not record the win. He owns a 2.90 ERA across his first nine MLB starts.

The Rays have yet to name a starter opposite Williams. It may be Tyler Glasnow, who is on track to return to the rotation after being scratched from Sunday’s start due to back spasms. Glasnow, the AL Pitcher of the Month for July, is 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 96 strikeouts in 68.2 innings. Be sure to monitor Glasnow’s status when assessing the odds in our Guardians vs Rays preview.

Eflin has been steady atop Tampa Bay’s rotation, going 12-6 with a 3.34 ERA. He is tied with Atlanta’s Spencer Strider for second in MLB in wins. The Guardians will counter with Bibee, who is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA. He is a +5000 longshot to win AL Rookie of the Year.

For MLB betting news, odds, analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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