MLB 2024 Season Look Ahead
Yankees And Dodgers Have Made Big Strides
We’re still about a month and a half out from pitchers and catchers reporting to their Spring Training sites in advance of the 2024 MLB season, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to start looking at 2024 MLB futures.
There are not a ton of surprises at the top of the boards for either World Series odds or individual awards, but if there is anything consistent about baseball, it is that weird things tend to happen over the course of a 162-game season (and postseason).
The clear winners of the offseason so far — the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers — are expected to have huge seasons.
New York is only +1000 to win the World Series (tied for the third-best odds) but is +450 to win the American League (tied with the Houston Astros) and is the favorite (+160) to take home the AL East title. Aaron Judge (+550) and new addition Juan Soto (+600) are the two favorites to win the AL MVP, which shows you just how dangerous the top of that lineup is.
Dodgers Overwhelming Favorites in NL
Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, the Dodgers — who signed the top two 2024 MLB free agents — are huge favorites (-300) to win the NL West and are the top pick to win not only the NL pennant (+190) but also the World Series (+350).
Between Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles has three of the NL’s top five MVP candidates which feels like some kind of major competitive disadvantage for the rest of baseball. Oh, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a legitimate Cy Young candidate as well.
Even though the Yankees and Dodgers are rightfully getting a lot of attention on the MLB odds, it would be unwise to overlook the other two teams in MLB’s group of perennial title contenders: the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.
They have yet to make huge, needle-moving acquisitions this winter, but they still have incredibly talented rosters and a proven track record of success. So, Houston being the favorites in the AL West (+150) and AL overall (+450 with the Yankees), and tied for third in World Series odds (+1000), makes sense. The Astros are as reliable as it gets.
Atlanta — at least on paper — is easily the best team in the NL East (-225) and the second-best team in the NL (+350). The Braves, who have won a total of 205 games over the past two seasons, have the second-best odds to win it all for the second time since 2021.
The lineup, fronted by reigning NL MVP and stolen base leader Ronald Acuña Jr., is fully intact, and the solid rotation is led by Spencer Strider, who is +180 to lead the Majors in strikeouts for the second-straight season. Acuña Jr. (+550) is the favorite to repeat as NL MVP and is also the favorite (+150) to lead MLB in stolen bases again. The Braves are loaded and now have an even deeper bullpen.
As mentioned above, though, there is only so much of the MLB results that can be predicted before the season begins. While the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros and Braves look to be the best squads in 2024, MLB teams like the defending champion Texas Rangers and the Philadelphia Phillies — both +1000 to win the World Series — are more than talented enough to be elite-level contenders.
Value in the Second Tier?
Also, it would not be smart to sleep on “second-tier” teams like the Baltimore Orioles (+1600), Toronto Blue Jays (+1800), Seattle Mariners (+2000) or Tampa Bay Rays (+2500) for 2024 MLB futures.
The Orioles won the competitive AL East and 100+ games a season ago, and the Blue Jays, despite underperformance in 2023, have a great roster with good starting pitching. Seattle is a team on the rise with an impressive homegrown rotation, and the Rays are the Rays who are uniquely set up to be able to withstand the recent Tyler Glasnow trade.
That brings up to the NL Central and AL Central, two divisions which do not feature any top-flight World Series contenders but have some interesting teams.
Divisional Bets with Value
In the NL Central, the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals (both +185 to win the division) look like the two best teams after the reigning division champion Milwaukee Brewers had a tumultuous offseason in which they got rid of a sizable chunk of their pitching and lost former top executive David Stearns to the Mets.
The Cubs faltered late last season and could lose Cody Bellinger to free agency yet they have a nice position player core and have the ability to still make a big addition.
The Cardinals were absolutely terrible in 2023, but there are plenty of productive bats in that lineup, and positive regression to the mean should help.
The Minnesota Twins (-120) appear to be the only definitive playoff contender in the AL Central based on the 2024 MLB futures, which Minnesota easily won a year ago.
No one else in the division got markedly better over the past few months and, even though the Twins lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle, they still have enough offensive pop to withstand worse pitching.
It would take a huge leap from the Detroit Tigers or Cleveland Guardians to really push Minnesota.
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