Cleveland Browns 2023 Future Odds: Super Bowl, Conference, Division, Regular Season Wins and Player Props

The Cleveland Browns are the textbook example of a dark-horse Super Bowl contender. This team, on paper, has what it takes to make a run for the Vince Lombardi Trophy. But everything rests on how well quarterback Deshaun Watson can play. He was subpar in his six starts last season. But if he can put up prolific 2023 Cleveland Browns stats, the team will be a sharp bet given its somewhat long outright odds.

Cleveland Browns At A Glance

Browns Look Elite on Paper But…

It has usually been the case that this franchise performs worse than what it looks like. Cleveland has made just one postseason appearance in 20 seasons and it’s posted a winning season just twice. Last season, Cleveland went just below expectations going 7-10 against a regular-season win total of 8.5.

Watson served his 11-game suspension and was rusty when he returned. He had a 3-3 record as the starting quarterback and his 79.1 passer rating was his worst mark. Even Jacoby Brissett, the temporary starter, posted a better rating. Still, Watson did show flashes and early offseason reports indicate he’s starting to look like his “old” self.

In his last three seasons with Houston, Watson made three Pro Bowls, won a playoff game, and averaged over 4,600 passing yards and 31 touchdowns if adjusted for a 17-game schedule. These are elite numbers. If these are his 2023 Cleveland Browns stats, the team could win the division and make a deep playoff run.

Watson has all the tools at his disposal. The Browns’ offensive line is rated as a top-five unit at the least while Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones are a solid wide-receiver tandem. And Nick Chubb is arguably the best running back in the NFL.

On defense, Cleveland’s defensive line is also ranked as a top-five group. General manager Andrew Berry even further bolstered it in the offseason. While the Browns still have questions on the secondary and depth on offense, there is little to no excuse why this team cannot be a contender in 2023.

Super Bowl Odds: A Potential Disruptor

When talking about Super Bowl favorites, only a handful of teams are discussed. But the Browns could forcefully insert themselves into that picture once Watson plays in his Pro Bowl form. The odds will quickly shorten on Cleveland if the team starts fast. Four of its first five games are at home per their NFL schedule.

The Cleveland Browns’ roster stacks up well against the other powerhouses on the NFL odds. Again, it will be on Watson to prove he’s close to the level of his peers. He will need to be if the Browns are to bump off the Kansas City Chiefs or beat the best NFC team. Their shortening odds indicate the public is bullish on their chances.

Conference Odds: The Measuring Stick for Watson

The AFC is a tougher conference than the NFC, in theory. Most of the league’s top quarterbacks are in the AFC and Watson will need to beat the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow to make it to the Super Bowl. He already defeated Allen in the playoffs back when Allen was not the passer he is now.

But against Mahomes, Watson is 1-2 and saw his Texans get demolished by the Chiefs back in the 2020 playoffs. Watson threw for 388 yards and two touchdowns while Mahomes lumped five touchdowns including four in one quarter. But Watson’s team is better than that Texans squad so the odds could be much better for him this time.

Division Odds: The Toughest Test

Look no further than the AFC North division odds. This is why Cleveland’s other outright odds are lucrative: getting out of this division is brutal. This may be the most competitive in the NFL as both Cincinnati and Baltimore are Super Bowl contenders while Pittsburgh is still a winning team.

Cleveland could finish first or last and neither result would be that shocking. Last season, the Browns split each division series and went 3-3. Watson went 1-2 in his time at QB. He defeated the Ravens but lost to the Bengals and Steelers. The franchise has also never won a division title since it returned to the NFL in 1999.

Regular Season Wins: Is 10 Wins Enough?

The 2023 Cleveland Browns stats and odds are trending toward a better season. The team is now expected to win around nine or 10 games based on the betting lines. But the question is if this win total is enough to get the Browns to the postseason. It was enough for the past two seasons but not in 2020 when Miami went 10-6 and fell short.

Assuming Cleveland goes 3-3 in the division, it then needs seven to eight wins. It has a few games against some expected also-rans like Arizona and Indianapolis. But it gets washed with tough matchups versus San Francisco and the New York Jets.

To Make Playoffs: Down to the Wire

Cleveland’s playoff lives may be decided late in the season. Its strength of schedule is similar to its division rivals as they play each other, the AFC South and the NFC West. The Browns are 10-4 against the NFC since 2020 but just 7-12 against the rest of the AFC.

The team also has a tough start to the season. Despite having mostly home games, Cleveland plays its three division rivals in Weeks 1, 2, and 4. Then they take on the 49ers in Week 6 after their bye. Weeks 7 to 9 are the softest in Cleveland’s schedule and from Weeks 10 onwards, the team will have a small margin for error.

Side Bets: Going All in on Watson?

Browns backers can double down by betting on Watson. He will not only have to be good but he’ll need to be in elite form to carry Cleveland past the division and into the playoffs. As such, there are several longshot bets on Watson that could pay dividends.

Watson to lead the NFL in passing yards is at 25-1 while passing touchdowns is at a whopping 60-1. The Browns have a stalwart offensive line and a potent rushing attack that will help open up the field for Watson. His best year saw him throw for 4,823 passing yards and 33 touchdowns in 2020. In a 17-game schedule that is 5,124 yards and 35 touchdowns.

For NFL betting news, odds analysis, and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.

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