MLB Early Division Odds & Preview
NL East Should be Super-Competitive Once Again
February is here which means that MLB pitchers and catchers will start reporting to Spring Training in the next couple of weeks (if they aren’t already working out with their teammates at their teams’ facilities already). The regular season is quickly approaching and, with basically all the top free agents signed and most teams’ offseasons wrapped up from a player acquisition perspective, it’s a great time to start checking out the MLB early division odds.
We’ll start by going through the National League, which should have a pair of very strong divisions (the East and West) with the so-so Central featuring a few decent teams and some major question marks. Overall, though, the NL is a much stronger league than the AL both in terms of high-end teams and in terms of depth. That should make for some very tight divisional races that will add a lot of intrigue to the MLB schedule. Let’s take a division-by-division look, starting with the NL East:
National League East
Right now, at the start of February, the New York Mets (+120) are the very slight favorites to take home the NL East crown. That means the defending division champion Atlanta Braves (+130) and reigning NL pennant winner Philadelphia Phillies (+350) are not, at least based on where the odds sit right now, considered the top options in the division even though the disparity between the top three teams is very small. As expected, the Miami Marlins (+3000) and Washington Nationals (+15000) are far behind the pack.
The Mets did lead the division for the vast majority of the 2022 season, only slipping behind the Braves due to a disastrous late-season sweep. It’s undeniable that New York was the better team for most of the year and, despite a very active offseason in terms of both additions and subtractions, the Mets are probably still deserving favorites. When you sub in Justin Verlander for Jacob deGrom and pick up worthwhile replacements for Taijuan Walker and Chris Bassitt in the rotation — and make minor but notable improvements around the rest of the roster, even without Carlos Correa — you’ll be just fine.
The standings in the NL East will depend on if Atlanta and Philadelphia did enough to overcome New York’s advantage in depth and top-of-the-rotation talent. The Braves basically sat out of free agency, watching Dansby Swanson and Kenley Jansen (and others) walk while only adding Sean Murphy and some bullpen arms via trade. Meanwhile, the Phillies made a pair of big signings with Trea Turner and Walker that they hope will make them more than just a playoff flash in the pan.
If you think the Mets’ veteran arms and bolstered lineup (which will benefit from the continued development of top prospects Brett Baty and Francisco Álvarez) will be just a few games better than the 2022 team, then this is New York’s division to lose. But, the Braves and Phillies are more-than-worthwhile betting options who can certainly out-perform the Mets if things break right.
National League Central
As the only NL Central playoff team from a year ago, the St. Louis Cardinals (-115) are unsurprisingly expected to take home their second-straight division title. St. Louis took the lead from the Milwaukee Brewers (+145) in the beginning of August and never looked back. While the Cardinals had a very poor showing in the postseason, they’re still a more well-rounded team than Milwaukee or even the improved Chicago Cubs (+500), from whom St. Louis signed All-Star catcher Willson Contreras to replace the retired Yadier Molina.
The early MLB division odds expect the Cardinals to control the Central yet again as the Brewers didn’t do a whole lot to improve a disappointing offense — other than trade for Wilson’s brother, William — or shaky bullpen. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds (both +5000) aren’t serious contenders as they continue to work through prolonged rebuilds and refuse to show much interest in getting better. So, it might be a two-horse race in the NL Central yet again with the Cubs and their new-look lineup possibly hanging around for awhile.
National League West
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-130), winners of nine of the last 10 NL Central crowns, lost Trea Turner this offseason as well as a host of other free agents — namely Tyler Anderson, Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner — but did add J.D. Martinez and continue to boast an elite top-of-lineup, rotation and bullpen. The MLB early division odds have the San Diego Padres (+125) and their superstar-laden roster as a relatively close No. 2 despite the health uncertainty of Fernando Tatís Jr.
Just two seasons removed from their stunning division win over the Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants (+850) are complete longshots in the division after letting Carlos Rodón go to the New York Yankees, adding injury-prone outfielders Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger, and bringing Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling into the rotation. The Giants probably won’t be as bad as they were a season ago but they didn’t do nearly enough to get on the same level as Los Angeles or San Diego.
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+4000) and Colorado Rockies (+8000) are essentially afterthoughts even though Arizona has an interesting young core that could make some strides and play spoiler down the stretch. The Diamondbacks could be an interesting flier as a bet to sneak into the playoffs but they don’t have a chance in the divisional race.
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