Mahomes, Chiefs Seek Rare Repeat in Super Bowl 58
Super Bowl LVIII Expert Pick: 49ers Holding Steady at -2
It’s almost here. Super Bowl 58 will kick off Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS) at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, with the San Francisco 49ers facing the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s a rematch of Super Bowl 54 in Miami, which Kansas City won 31-20.
Kansas City is seeking to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the New England Patriots in 2004-05. Meanwhile, San Francisco aims for its first Super Bowl since 1994 and sixth in franchise history, which would tie it with Pittsburgh and New England for the most ever.
The 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites, and the line has stayed relatively steady over the last 10 days. They’re now down to -2 on the spread and -122 on the moneyline, with the Chiefs priced +102 to win outright. Meanwhile, the projected total is 47.5, with a slight edge to the Over at -112 odds.
What can bettors expect? Read on as we break down both NFL teams and give our Super Bowl LVIII expert pick.
49ers vs Chiefs 
Day/Time:
Records: San Francisco (14-5)/Kansas City (14-6)
Location: Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas
Streaming: Watch Live Sports
Chiefs Winning Games — and ATS
Kansas City’s 12 wins ATS this season are tied for the second-most in the NFL, behind the Detroit Lions (14). The Chiefs have covered in five straight NFL games, three of which they’ve been underdogs. At the same time, they’ve gone Under the total 14 times, the second-highest rate (70%) in the league.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is a bit more unpredictable. The 49ers are 9-10 ATS, including 0-2 this postseason. In fact, the 49ers haven’t covered since Week 17 against the Washington Commanders.
Despite that, the 49ers have been favored in every game this NFL season, including seven times by double-digits. In those instances, they’re 4-3 ATS.
That’s important to remember when assessing our Super Bowl LVIII expert pick.
CMC, Purdy Fueling Niners
The 49ers may be the most balanced team in the NFL. The NFC’s top seed ranked No. 2 in total offense and No. 8 in total defense and produced the third-best point differential at plus-193. Eleven of their 12 regular-season wins came by double-digits, with the exception of a 30-23 victory over the Rams in Week 2.
NFL injuries may have been a concern at one point, but the 49ers are now healthy. Christian McCaffrey is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this postseason after missing Week 18 with a strained calf, and Deebo Samuel returned from a shoulder injury with a nine-catch, 89-yard performance against Detroit in the NFC title game.
Much of San Francisco’s offense will continue to run through McCaffrey. Oddsmakers project him to run for 90.5 yards, a total he’s hit in seven of the last eight games. McCaffrey has also scored 11 touchdowns during that span, including back-to-back games with multiple NFL scores.
Brock Purdy remains under the microscope, with critics labeling him a product of Kyle Shanahan’s offensive system. But the former Mr. Irrelevant has delivered in the clutch this postseason, authoring second-half comebacks in victories over Green Bay and Detroit.
According to NFL QB stats, Purdy set a franchise record for passing yards (4,280) and became the first 49ers quarterback in over two decades to throw for more than 30 touchdowns (31). On top of that, he led the league with a 113.0 QB rating.
While San Francisco was just 9-10 ATS, it curiously fared far better on the road (6-3) compared to home (3-7). In fact, the 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. Be sure to keep that in mind when analyzing our Super Bowl LVIII expert pick.
Mahomes, Kelce Up to Old Tricks
Patrick Mahomes has played a season’s worth of games since taking over as Chiefs quarterback. He’s been close to impeccable in those starts, producing a 14-3 record with 4,802 yards, 39 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions. Two of losses came against Tom Brady.
After finishing just 15th in scoring (21.8 PPG), the Chiefs have hit another gear in the playoffs. That again goes back to Mahomes, who is 70-for-103 (68%) for 718 yards, four touchdowns and no turnovers over the last three games. Notably, he’s thrown four interceptions in his previous three Super Bowls.
Tight end Travis Kelce is coming off an 11-catch, 116-yard performance against Baltimore in the AFC title game. In the process, the four-time All-Pro broke Jerry Rice’s NFL career record for most catches in the postseason, with 156 in 21 games. Kelce is projected for 70.5 receiving yards at -130 odds, a total he’s surpassed in 12 consecutive playoff games dating to the 2021 Divisional Round NFL bracket.
Led by defensive linemen Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, the Chiefs also have the No. 2-ranked scoring defense. They held opponents to an average of 17.3 points.
Like San Francisco, Kansas City is relatively healthy, with the exception of star guard Joe Thuney (pectoral). Mahomes was sacked twice by Baltimore, and the 49ers will certainly look to exploit the Chiefs’ makeshift line.
Underdog? What Underdog?
Mahomes has thrived as an underdog, and that may be underselling it. He’s 10-1-1 ATS and 9-3 SU after knocking off the top-seeded Ravens as a 4.5-point underdog.
This postseason alone, Mahomes is 2-0 ATS in that role. The Chiefs also covered in Week 18 against the Chargers (-3), a game in which Mahomes did not play.
For Super Bowl expert picks, betting analysis and more, visit Point Spreads Sports Magazine.
