NFL Week 1 Full Schedule Analysis for 2023 Season

The 2023 NFL season will be here before you know it, so it’s time to take a look at the lines for NFL Week 1.

The Detroit Lions enter 2023 full of hope. With the rest of the NFC North expected to be down a bit this year, the Lions are the preseason favorites to win the division. It’s an unusual spot for Detroit but one the team relishes. Detroit’s offense was quietly one of the best in the NFL last season, ranking No. 4 in total offense.

The Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions and are favored to repeat this season. With Patrick Mahomes and company back for another Super Bowl try, there’s no reason why Kansas City can’t repeat. NFL Week 1 favorites of 7 or more points are just 44-49-1 against the spread dating back to 2006. But these games have gone 57-37 in totals (60.6%), so the over 54 is worth a look here.

Both the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons have something to prove this season. Both teams were 7-10 straight-up and 9-8 against the spread. The Panthers took their quarterback of the future in Bryce Young. But it remains to be seen who the starter will be for the Panthers in the season’s opening game.

The Falcons had comparable numbers to the Panthers last year, and the teams split their two games. Both teams were much stronger at home last season. Carolina was 5-4 at home, and Atlanta was 6-3. The NFL Week 1 betting trends show home favorites of three points or less going 59-48-10 (55.1%) since 2006, making the Falcons a little bit attractive.

Only the Chicago Bears had a worse record than the Texans in 2022, and it looks to be another long year for Houston. The Texans can take some solace. This game is being played on the road. Houston was 3-6 away from home last year and 0-7-1 in front of the home fans. The Texans picked C.J. Stroud in the draft, and he very well could start this game.

The Ravens were 10-7 a year ago but find themselves as having the biggest of the NFL Week 1 points spread. Part of that is due to the Ravens being a decent team. But an ever larger part of the 10-point spread is Houston being such a bad football team.

NFC North rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland meet in one of the more intriguing NFL Week 1 matchups. The Bengals were 12-5 last season, while the Browns were 7-10. All four teams in the AFC North had 3-3 division records last year. The Browns and Bengals each won at home last season. The Bengals are the favorites to win the division this season.

The Bengals addressed their offensive line woes in free agency, bringing in several quality players to help keep the pressure off Joe Burrow. The Browns are the third choice in the NFL betting odds to win the division. Cleveland used free agency and trades to strengthen its defensive line. This game could show which team made the better off-season moves.

The NFL Week 1 point spread sees the Jaguars as 4-point road favorites, which is a usual situation for Jacksonville. The Jaguars have only been road favorites 12 times since the start of the 2009 season. But it’s probably warranted in this spot. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars made big strides last season and are solid favorites to win the AFC South.

The Colts drafted Anthony Richardson to play QB, and he’s a gifted athlete, but a little bit of a project. Gardner Minshew was brought in to play if Richardson needs some time to adjust to the NFL. There’s little doubt Richardson is going to be a good one. It’s just a matter of when and he’s likely to suffer some growing pains along the way.

The Tom Brady era came crashing down for Tampa Bay last season, as the Bucs never really got untracked. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask will battle it out in training camp to see who replaces Brady behind center. Tampa Bay had a decent draft and resigned Jamel Dean, but you can’t win in today’s NFL without productive QB play.

The Vikings are a longshot to match last year’s win total of 13. Ten wins this year would be considered a successful season. Minnesota needs to win these types of games to have any shot at the NFL playoffs. The NFL Week 1 line of Minnesota -6.5 could be asking a bit much of the Vikings.

The Tennessee Titans were a disappointing 7-10 last season and didn’t make any of the rumored moves. There was speculation the Titans would move Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry to begin a rebuild. But nothing has happened on that front yet. Tennessee grabbed Will Levis in the draft as their quarterback of the future. If he’ll play here will be determined in training camp.

The Saints were also 7-10 and have a new quarterback in Derek Carr. While he had a down season for Las Vegas in 2022, he should be an improvement over Andy Dalton. This is one of the tougher NFL Week 1 point spreads to try and handicap.

This is probably the most interesting betting line for NFL Week 1. The 49ers are one of the favorites to come out of the NFC to reach the Super Bowl. The Steelers are picked to finish last in the AFC North. But the 49ers are favored by less than a field goal. San Francisco won 13 games last year. Pittsburgh won nine, so there’s little question of who the better team is.

The 49ers could have a question at quarterback in the early going. Brock Purdy may be on the NFL Week 1 injury report, leaving it to Trey Lance and Sam Darnold to hold the fort if he can’t go. The 49ers are hopeful Purdy will be ready for the start of the season. The Steelers had an above-average draft but will need Kenny Pickett to take another step forward to climb into playoff contention.

Kyler Murray is likely to land on the NFL Week 1 injuries list and miss this game as he recovers from a torn ACL. Arizona has been quiet, but he could miss a good portion of the 2023 season. That’s not what you want to hear if you’re a 4-13 team as the Cardinals were a year ago. The Cardinals didn’t really do much to improve the team.

Washington is basically an average football team, as evidenced by its 8-8-1 record from a year ago. The Commanders are a step behind Philadelphia and Dallas in the NFC East. The Giants are no pushovers, but probably not as good as their 9-7-1 record. The spread is high, but Arizona could be really bad this season.

The betting odds NFL Week 1 have the Bears as small favorites over the Green Bay Packers, who have moved on from Aaron Rodgers. Jordan Love will finally get the opportunity to show what he can do at quarterback. Green Bay really didn’t improve its team through free agency, so this is looking like a transition year for the Packers.

Chicago will be an improved team from last year. But that’s easy to say about any 3-14 team. But the Bears made some smart moves in the offseason and it’s reasonable to expect Justin Fields to be better this season. Chicago is heading in the right direction.

Las Vegas made a number of moves in the offseason, beginning with signing Jimmy Garoppolo to play quarterback. He’ll have a solid target in free agent signee Jakobi Meyers, who had 67 receptions and six touchdowns a year ago. The Raiders have some talent on the offensive side of the ball. The defense is still suspect but should be a boost from first-round pick Tyree Wilson.

After the offense sputtered all of last season, the Broncos went out and nabbed a couple of free agents for the offensive line in Ben Powers and Mike McGlinchey. Denver’s fate will rest in the hands of Russell Wilson, who was just awful last year. If he plays like his old self, the Broncos will surprise people. Denver could be worth taking in your NFL Week 1 parlay picks.

The NFL Week 1 previews continue with a look at the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams were nice surprises last year and will try to build on their 2022 seasons. The Dolphins were 8-3 at one point last season, but disaster struck in the form of an injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa. If he can stay healthy, the Dolphins can play with anybody.

The Chargers didn’t do much in free agency but had a nice draft. Quentin Johnston fills a need at wide receiver and provides a nice target for quarterback Justin Herbert.

The NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles visit the New England Patriots and the Eagles are going to have a tough time matching last year’s 14 wins. With quarterback Jalen Hurts, it will be possible, but you probably don’t want to bet Philadelphia will win so many games this season.

The Patriots were down a bit last season, going 8-9. The defense did its job, but the offense was inconsistent at times. The Eagles weren’t the best team at stopping the run last year, so expect New England to try and take advantage of that. The NFL Week 1 over/under pick in this game is the under.

The Rams look to bounce back from last year’s 5-12 debacle that saw poor play and injuries decimate the squad. The Rams were quiet in free agency, so it will be up to the veterans like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, and Cooper Kupp to lead the Rams back to respectability.

The Seahawks were able to sneak into the playoffs with a 9-8 record. Seattle signed a few quality free agents and nabbed help at wideout by taking Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the NFL draft. Geno Smith had a solid season but didn’t finish as well as he started. If the Rams are healthy for the game, those making NFL Week 1 upset predictions may want to give them a good look.

The Sunday night game features longtime rivals Dallas and New York, which should attract good TV ratings. Dallas is the second-best team in the NFC East, while it’s reasonable to expect New York to come down a bit from last season. The Cowboys usually start the season strong. Since 1989, the Dallas NFL Week 1 spread results have seen the Cowboys go 19-14-1 against the spread.

The Cowboys did a decent job in the offseason, keeping some players and adding a few through free agency. The Giants also had a solid offseason even though they didn’t have a lot of money to spend.

This is one of the best NFL Week 1 matchups both on the field and involving the storyline off the field. The game will be played on 9-11, which has added significance for all of the United States, but especially for New York. It’s also Aaron Rodgers’ debut with the Jets against their rivals, the Buffalo Bills. You couldn’t ask for a better build-up to a game.

On the field, the Bills are the better team and the line is a bit on the low side here. Rodgers fills a dire need and the Jets have talent elsewhere. This could be one of the more entertaining games in Week 1 of the NFL. But from a betting standpoint, it’s hard to go against Buffalo.

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